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COVID-19: U. S. resumes rise in new daily cases after slowing for a few days, while Italy and Spain maintain numbers within past ranges

Geogrande.com / Published April 11, 2020

UNITED STATES - The U. S. currently leads the world in the number of new COVID-19 cases each day, followed by Italy and Spain. The number of new cases in the United States appeared to have peaked on April 5 at 34,272 (see accompanying graph), but now a few days later, a new peak has been reached on April 11 with 35,527 new cases (data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control).

Graph - New COVID-19 cases, April 11, U. S., Italy, Spain

Meanwhile, Italy who peaked on March 27 and Spain who peaked on April 1 are seeing new cases each day within their past ranges of numbers. Spain has had daily new cases in the 4,000 to 8,000 range since reaching a peak of 9,222 on April 1. Italy has had daily new cases within the 3,000 to 5,000 range for the last 11 days, after reaching a peak of 6,557 on March 27. Of course, the daily tally could resume climbing in either country.

The accompanying graph uses as a starting day of the virus outbreak the first day that 300 daily new cases were exceeded in each country. The number of new COVID-19 cases each day is a leading indicator of the future trend of the virus, compared to the number of deaths each day which is a trailing indicator.

Spain and Italy appear to have reached their peaks in daily new cases less than three weeks after starting virus control measures such as widespread stay-at-home orders. Significant virus control efforts began on March 14 in Spain and on March 11 in Italy. Significant control efforts began in the U. S. around March 16, with no leveling off of new cases now 25 days later.